Written by Mekong Institute
The effects of climate change include flood, drought, pest and disease outbreak, and are likely to become more prevalent and more intense in the future. Rice is the backbone of the economy in Cambodia, and rural people rely on rice cultivation for their livelihood.
Ba Phnum district is located in Prey Veng province, and is the district that is ranked the highest in vulnerability to flooding and second most vulnerable to droughtThis study aims to achieve the following objectives, i) to identify past and future climate trends in Prey Veng Province ii) to assess the impact of climate change and vulnerability of rice cultivation in target areas iii) to propose adaptation options for rice farmers.The research used the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) climate modeling downscaling for rainfall and temperature from Southeast Asia System for Analysis, Research and Training (START) Regional Center, and obtained climate data from water resources and meteorology in Prey Veng Province.
The study gathered trends based on 31 years of data on rainfall (from 1984 to 2014), and 18 years data of data gathered on temperature (from 1997 to 2014). Both the rainfall and the temperature data were projected to predict trends for 2030 and 2050. Additionally, this research used household interviews to consolidate the key findings.According to observed climate data, over the past 31 years the average rainfall was 1421.116 millimeters (mm) annually. The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 projection indicates that rainfall will decrease 97.504 mm by 2030 and increase 41.51 mm by 2050 in the target area.
The maximum temperature is 33.02 degrees Celsius (oC) according to SRESA2, and could show an increase of 0.60 oC by 2030 and of 1.12 oC, by 2050, while temperature in SRES B2 shows an increase 0.41 oC by 2030 and 1.32 oC by 2050. The mean annual minimum temperature is 23.55 oC. The projection shows that temperature could increase 0.46 oC by 2030 and increase 1.03 oC by 2050 using the SRESA2 scenario. For SRESB2 the minimum temperature could increase 0.46 oC by 2030 and increase 1.19 oC by 2050.
Household survey data indicates that rice is very vulnerable to the impact of climate change due to lack of irrigation, changes in climate, and challenges due to the market demand. Farmers from the selected area were aware of the impact of climate change, but some have little financial ability to cope with it. Farmers in Ba Phnum district have selected a short-term variety of rice seed variety to supply the market demand (Nambong – a Vietnamese variety of rice seed). Though they face challenges and are aware the seed they are currently cultivating is not tolerant to flood, drought, and pests they accept the risks related to climate change and use it to meet the market demand.